Keystone Law Group PLC (AIM: KEYS) is a full service UK law firm that provides legal services to SMEs and high net worth individuals. Through an unconventional platform business model, the company has managed to establish remarkable organic growth combined with strong returns on invested capital. The stock has declined significantly during 2022 due to, from my point of view, temporary headwinds and valuation normalisation. This has in my opinion created an interesting investment opportunity with decent forward returns and limited downside. The investment case can be summarised in the following points:
Thanks Michael and spot on! Recruitment growth has already been negative HoH. If it persists and pricing remains stable, we might already see negative growth soon. Have to be patient for the labour market to ease so acceptance rates normalise again.
Regarding this statement on the H1-2023 (Feb 22 - Jul 22) interim results:
"22 Principals have joined despite it being one of the most challenging recruitment markets in over a decade and we have increased the overall number of Principals to 399 (31 January 2022: 394)."
This leads to a principal churn rate of (22-5) / ((399+394)/2) = 17 / 397 = 4.3%, calculted as employees left during period divided by average employees during period, which is consistent with the 5% you mentioned above.
Regarding the acceptance rate of offers to princiapls, 34 offers were made and 17 accepted in H1 2023, compared to 36 and 28 respectively in H1 2022. This leads to a decrese of the acceptance rate from 78% to 50%. Certainly the competition for talent affects the firm growth. The question is, how long will it last this competition for talent , because the longer it gets the less growth teh firm will achieve or even negative growth...
Part of Keystones' edge was that it provided lawyers a "different way of working" and less need to be in the office. With Covid and mobile working wide-spread, one could that the "moat" between KEYS and conventional law firms narrowed (at least somewhat).
Thanks Michael and spot on! Recruitment growth has already been negative HoH. If it persists and pricing remains stable, we might already see negative growth soon. Have to be patient for the labour market to ease so acceptance rates normalise again.
Good analysis,
Regarding this statement on the H1-2023 (Feb 22 - Jul 22) interim results:
"22 Principals have joined despite it being one of the most challenging recruitment markets in over a decade and we have increased the overall number of Principals to 399 (31 January 2022: 394)."
This leads to a principal churn rate of (22-5) / ((399+394)/2) = 17 / 397 = 4.3%, calculted as employees left during period divided by average employees during period, which is consistent with the 5% you mentioned above.
Regarding the acceptance rate of offers to princiapls, 34 offers were made and 17 accepted in H1 2023, compared to 36 and 28 respectively in H1 2022. This leads to a decrese of the acceptance rate from 78% to 50%. Certainly the competition for talent affects the firm growth. The question is, how long will it last this competition for talent , because the longer it gets the less growth teh firm will achieve or even negative growth...
Part of Keystones' edge was that it provided lawyers a "different way of working" and less need to be in the office. With Covid and mobile working wide-spread, one could that the "moat" between KEYS and conventional law firms narrowed (at least somewhat).